159
FXUS63 KAPX 200716
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet today; Turning cooler and unsettled, with periods of
  showers and gusty northwest winds Tuesday through Thursday.

- Trending drier late in the week with warming temperatures
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

High pressure will slide overhead today, bringing a quiet and
seasonable start to the new week. Expect mostly to partly cloudy
skies through the day ahead of the next approaching system.
Winds will be light and variable, turning southerly as the high
shifts east. Afternoon highs will range through the 50s to
around 60. Clouds will gradually increase tonight as the next
low pressure system makes its way toward the Great Lakes. Some
weak warm advection showers could begin to edge into northwest
Lower and eastern Upper toward daybreak, but most areas look to
stay dry through most of the night, especially areas east of
I-75. Temperatures will not fall off much with increasing clouds
and a developing southerly breeze, with lows mainly in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

A more unsettled stretch of weather settles in for mid-week as
a deep trough and surface low slide across the Great Lakes. Rain
chances ramp up quickly Tuesday morning, spreading west to
east, as an occluded front pushes through, with showers likely
continuing through Thursday. As colder air filters in behind the
front, lake enhancement will become more pronounced, especially
across northwest Lower and eastern Upper where favorable
northwest flow sets up. Wednesday and Thursday look to feature
gusty northwest winds and highs struggling to get out of the 40s
for most inland areas, especially Thursday. Moisture and
several passing shortwaves will keep showers going at times with
perhaps some embedded thunderstorms.

The trough will begin to lift northeast late in the week,
allowing shower activity to gradually wind down Friday into the
weekend. High pressure looks to build in from the upper Midwest,
bringing quieter weather and a slow warming trend. Temperatures
should rebound into the 50s by Saturday and Sunday under partly
sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Widespread rain has exited stage right earlier this evening with
lingering isolated to scattered lake induced rain showers downwind
of Lake Michigan. Expecting these showers tonight largely to impact
locations between TAF sites with VFR conditions expected through
the day ahead. Rain chances return toward the very tail end of
the TAF period Monday evening at MBL/TVC, and beyond the TAF
period at PLN/APN/CIU.

Northwest winds continue to decrease overnight before gradually
turning southerly during the day Monday, and eventually
southeasterly Monday evening. Some gustiness returns, especially
after 00z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321-322.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MJG

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion