FXUS63 KAPX 141835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Challenges: Cloud trends and patchy fog development

Forecast Details: Weak surface low over the Ohio Valley will slide
slowly southeast tonight while short wave energy moves across
through the forecast area.  In the wake of the short wave, high
pressure over northern Ontario will begin to slowly build south into
the northern Lakes with light east/northeast boundary layer flow.

Primary Forecast Concerns:  Minimal.  Any nuisance sprinkles/light
showers should end by early evening with the passage of the short
wave.  Cloud cover may linger across northern Lower with light winds
struggling to scour out the low/mid level moisture.  Given the weak
boundary layer flow and residual moisture, expect some patchy fog
to develop over interior areas. Seasonably temperatures
overnight, with lows in the lower to middle 50s (A few upper 40s
in the typically cooler locations).


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...Dry with Near Normal Temps..

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Synopsis/Forecast: Heading into Monday the western ridge axis shifts
slightly east toward the upper Great Lakes, with troughing over
the northeast. The troughing will be blocked from progressing
eastward and will evolve into a cutoff low over the
northeast...poised to remain there through much of the week. At
the surface we`ll have high pressure being sustained through
Ontario and Quebec with us under light northeast flow. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance supports us remaining dry through
midweek at least, with very little forcing and moisture just a
touch on the low side of climo. Highs look to be near normal with
most areas getting into the upper 70`s and maybe low 80`s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...Mostly dry and quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

The pattern remains status quo through Thursday with minimal
changes. However as we head into Friday the cutoff low starts
lifting and opening up as it gets absorbed back into the northern
stream flow. A new cutoff low is progged to drop south out of
Manitoba through the upper Mississippi Valley heading into the start
of the weekend. This could induce a surface low that treks near the
Great Lakes, bringing a return to rain chances. Temperatures look to
remain near normal through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

VFR. High pressure will slowly begin to build into the area
tonight into Monday, bringing drier air and helping to scour out
the stubborn low/mid clouds. A few sprinkles or an isolated light
shower possible through late this afternoon, otherwise dry. Some
patchy fog tonight, although limited impacts expected at the
terminals.  Winds will be light and generally from the
east/northeast throughout the period.


Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Not anticipating any marine impacts over the next few days
with generally light (less than 10kts) east to northeast winds
expected. Wave height generally 2 feet or less through midweek.





NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion