323
FXUS63 KAPX 160956
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
556 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and less humid today with seasonable temperatures.

- Scattered light rain shower potential later tonight.

- Dry most of Thursday and Friday. Potential for another round
  of rain Friday night into this weekend, with best chances for
  any heavier rain increasing the farther south one goes... with
  less rain coverage the farther north one goes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Vertically stacked surface low over James Bay to continue its north
and east motion, forcing a surface cold front through the region as
expansive 1024mb surface high pressure intrudes hot on its heels.
Meanwhile, expansive thermal ridge over the southeastern CONUS will
continue its dominance in those parts, leading to the aforementioned
cold front to largely stall out as a stationary front roughly along
the I-80 corridor between Omaha and Cleveland. As such, deepest
moisture to be suppressed well to our south through Friday as pseudo-
zonal flow around the ridge leads to some serious rainfall amounts
to our south. Weak northern stream perturbation over the northern
Rockies zips east along the US-Canada border, arriving quite
moisture starved tonight into early Thursday. Surface high pressure
to return through the day Thursday, but short lived.

Wave with tropical Pacific origins to surge into the desert SW today
(likely bringing a serious flooding threat to Arizona and much of
the Four Corners region). It will then eject into the northern
Plains by Friday, evolving into a convectively charged wave rich
with deep, Pacific moisture as it moves through the Midwest toward
the Great Lakes region. WNW flow regime over the northern CONUS
looks to force this wave south as it progresses toward the Great
Lakes, likely leaving the highest moisture concentrations (and thus,
highest probs of heavy rain, and perhaps even rain in general) just
south of northern Michigan... but may nose far enough north to lead
to some rains across the bottom rows of counties in the CWA.

Details:

Not a lot to speak of during the day today as drier air settles in
with seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s amid peeks of
afternoon sun. Clouds increase again tonight as the upper level
northern stream wave makes a pass through the region. Better
moisture to our west should allow showers to maintain themselves
into the northwest lower shores of Lake Michigan... but as it moves
into a more hostile environment lacking moisture and instability,
anticipation is that shower intensity and coverage decreases
considerably as activity progresses eastward. Rainfall amounts will
likely struggle to eclipse 0.10" anyways, so little to no impacts
anticipated. Drier weather to prevail Thursday and Friday with
seasonable temperatures in the 60s-70s, lows in the 40s-50s Thursday
night.

Aforementioned Pacific wave to make its presence known later Friday
into Friday night / Saturday as upstream rain and thunderstorms
approach. Moisture profiles are strongly signaling heavy rainfall
potential in any convective elements... but will have to see if
theta-e advection is strong enough to draw the aforementioned
stationary front northward to provide better forcing for that to
happen here. Current guidance is laying down an impressive stripe of
rain (to the order of 2-5"+ of rain) with this wave from Minnesota /
Iowa, ESE into Wisconsin / Illinois, and lands more downstate in
Michigan as opposed to up here. Residual moisture from this wave
could spark some showers at times, but current thinking is the
heaviest rainfall across the region would likely hold south of M-72.
This is further echoed by latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks...
during the Tuesday afternoon forecast package, all of northern lower
was in a Slight Risk (2/4) and eastern upper in Marginal (1/4).
Latest outlook suppresses the Slight Risk south of I-96, and the
Marginal Risk cuts off roughly along M-32... signaling high
confidence in this southern turn. Regardless, rain chances to creep
back into the picture Friday night and again Saturday... but
tentative thinking is that perhaps we sneak out a drier weekend as
opposed to a soggy one, especially the farther north one goes. More
details to come.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Any fog/mist and stratus will quicky burn off early this morning,
leaving behind VFR conditions today under some passing high level
clouds and some high based cumulus. VFR conditions expected to
continue tonight under some increasing mid and upper level clouds.
May see a few non-impactful showers fall out of this mid level
cloud deck late tonight. Light winds through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion