369
FXUS63 KAPX 290338
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1138 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty west winds will gradually diminish this evening and
  tonight

- A pattern change will begin Wednesday, ushering in below
  normal temperatures, more clouds, and times of light
  rain/snow showers

- High confidence (+70% chances) for widespread below freezing
  overnight lows starting Wed night and lasting through the
  weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026


Current surface observations depict a ~993mb low centered over
central Ontario CAN this afternoon. With an 8mb N/S gradient over
the state, strong west winds have continued into the afternoon
hours. Lingering surface instability has allowed stronger gusts to
mix down to the surface as well, with widespread gusts of 20 to 30
mph seen as well in these surface observations. An upper jet wave is
moving through the Great Lakes region, and will continue to carry
the surface cyclone towards the northeast this evening. Gradients
will relax and winds will gradually weaken tonight. Surface high
pressure will build in as winds turn north, brining colder air over
most spots.

Depending on how quickly the winds diminish, localized spots over
northern lower could see overnight lows dip into the low to mid 30s.
The best chances for freezing temperatures tonight will be over
eastern upper, closer to the source of the colder surface airmass.
It will likely take a little longer to shove all the near surface
moisture over northern lower to the south, which also creates some
uncertainty for how cold temperatures will be here tonight. All in
all, the higher hills of northern lower and areas near the tip of
the mitt could see local spots dip into the low 30s, but should
remain in the mid to high 30s tonight. Frost will be a concern for
locations where temperatures creep into the mid 30s or lower. A good
percentage of northern lower has 50 degree GDD`s around 125, which
is when we would start to see impacts from frost on vegetation.
Vegetation near M-32 has the best chance tonight for the overlap of
near or above 125 GDD days at 50 degrees and non zero chances for
times of temperatures in the mid 30s tonight (better chances for
frost formation).

Afternoon satellite shows convective activity over the central
plains, and with a jet stream pointed towards southern MI, some
convective debris will likely move over northern MI early Wednesday.
Cloud cover will persist through the night tonight and into the day
on Wednesday. Slight chances for decaying shower activity exists
over areas adjacent to Saginaw Bay Wednesday morning. During the
day on Wednesday the larger pattern will begin to change. An upper
closed low will descend on the Great Lakes region, brining wrapped up
continental moisture and colder temperatures through the column.
Brisk north winds will keep high temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatuers will remain cold and winds brisk in the afternoon hours
for Thursday and Friday as the upper closed low very slowly slides
to the eastern Great Lakes by the weekend. At this time, the coldest
temperatures aloft will be Thursday into Friday, which would
result in chances for some light lake effect showers. Some spots
could see a rain/snow mix, and if the showers linger into the
night it would transition to mostly snow. This will likely not
be in the form of bands (wind fields are not strong/organized
enough), but isolated cells that will wander over northern MI.
Any accumulations will remain light.

With the colder airmass continually being reinforced through
the end of the work week, there is high confidence in widespread
interior locations seeing overnight temperatures dip near or
below freezing starting Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Some
interior spots could see temperatures as low as the low to mid
20s. If you have plants that are budding and susceptible to
colder temperatures, make sure to cover them these night.

By Sunday, the upper closed low will stop influencing the area and
allow for temperatures to start a gradual warming trend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lower clouds hanging on late this evening APN/CIU/PLN, mostly
VFR. Cooler air continues to invade the area, and drying has
been a little slowed/delayed. MVFR cigs may return late morning,
before again improving to VFR. Decreasing winds tonight, and a
nw/nnw breeze returning Wednesday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion